WARNING! Tech Content

Okay, I'm going to write about some tech-y stuff today. Why? Because it's my blog and, well, it has quite a bit to do with a writing project that I'm working on.

A few days ago the lecturer who led our Fantastic Worlds module at LJMU, John Sayle, posted this picture with a comment for FW students to take note.

When he posted it, I actually had to think a bit. I am a technology aware kind of guy, and yet, I do feel that a lot of what we're promised is coming either never does, or never will.

Then I was looking at an old talk I gave concerning BT's need to upgrade their infrastructure. For those of you that don't know, BT are the company who own, maintain and lease out the cabling and infrastructure that carries landline telephone/internet services. Sky, Plusnet, Tesco, all of them use BT's infrastructure. That includes Virgin (in areas where Virgin Media do not have cabling).

Seven years ago I was talking, well ranting actually, about how with the increase in traffic to sites like YouTube, and the launch of BBC iPlayer the current (and it still is current) infrastructure was going to need to be upgraded, and soon. Internet usage at the time was increasing at a huge rate and all around experts were claiming that the trend would continue. At that time though BT had not plans to upgrade their infrastructure (or at least no public plans that I could find).

Now, in 2013, I have found myself moving from an area with Virgin Media's cable fibre-optic lines to an area with BT's old copper wires. That's going from Mach 1 to 30mph...or at least it feels like it. It's been a real adjustment, but I've been keeping the faith. After all BT's Openreach programme (part of which is their Fibre roll-out) has been working throughout Wirral. Their website promises that the exchanges near our area will be ready by 2014. This is great news surely?

Well no. You see, BT have kept a few things quiet. They are not upgrading all the cabinets that connect their infrastructure to the houses. Which means that you can't access this new system. Their excuse is a lack of economic viability.

So here I sit with a laptop, a mobile phone and a Nexus 7 tablet (with 4G capability). Of the three internet connected devices, the tablet has the fastest and more reliable connection. What is worse, I pay less for that internet connection than I pay for the home/landline internet connection.

Which makes me wonder...with mobile (cellular for those abroad) companies constantly working to increase and double the capability of their internet connections where does that leave BT?

Seven years ago I suggested that instead of simply 'building bigger pipes' we should find ways of compressing the information down so that more can fit through the existing pipes. Of course, that was rather naive. After all copper wire telephone connections are a Victorian invention doing far, far, far more than they were ever expected to.

Here and now, I think that BT ought to be considering their future very carefully. I've been running tests on all three connections daily for the last four weeks. These are the results:

Virgin Media (through BT): 
Downstream - 2.27Mb/s
Upstream - 0.64Mb/s
Latency - 40ms

O2 3G+:
Downstream - 6.64Mb/s
Upstream - 1.74Mb/s
Latency - 75ms

EE 4G (In Liverpool):
Downstream - 12.24Mb/s
Upstream - 6.49Mb/s
Latency - 70ms

EE 4G (at Home):
Downstream - 6.25Mb/s
Upstream - 3.73Mb/s
Latency - 76ms

So that's a real world testing. On average, BT's infrastructure is already lagging significantly behind.

Here's where things get worse for BT though. EE advertise that their maximum theoretical bandwidth for 4G will be approximately 300Mb/s. Assuming this to be true, and assuming that the advertised bandwidth of BT's new fibre rollout to also be 300Mb/s, there could well be problems for BT and traditional landlines down the road.

You see, BT are now openly admitting that it is fiscally difficult for them to provide 100% coverage to the UK with their new system. Even in my small area of Wirral it may be that we won't see the upgrade. So what happens when, in another five year's time 5G comes along, and mobile providers begin to upgrade their systems again?

All of this boils down to the fact that maybe that little graphic was right. Personally, I think it is. Landline telecommunication is facing a rocky and uncertain future. I certainly don't think I can see a reason for people to stay attached to landline phones. Perhaps all this means that we really ought to think about how true this is:

Besides, when was the last time you saw a phone that looked like the one in the picture?